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January 8, 2002-1
Copyright © 2002 Earth Policy Institute
World Wind Generating Capacity Jumps 31 Percent in 2001
Lester R. Brown
Preliminary data show world wind electric
generating capacity climbing from 17,800 megawatts in 2000 to an
estimated 23,300 megawatts in 2001--a dramatic one-year gain of
5,500 megawatts or 31 percent. As generating costs continue to fall
and as public concern about climate change escalates, the world
is fast turning to wind for its electricity.
Since 1995, world wind-generating capacity has increased an astounding
487 percent, or nearly fivefold. During the same period, the use
of coal, the principal alternative for generating electricity, declined
by 9 percent.
One megawatt of wind-generating capacity typically will satisfy
the electricity needs of 350 households in an industrial society,
or roughly 1,000 people. Thus, the 23,300 megawatts of generating
capacity now in place is sufficient to meet the residential electricity
needs of some 23 million people--equal to the combined population
of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden.
In wind electric-generating capacity, Germany leads the world with
8,000 megawatts, nearly a third of the total. The United States,
which launched the modern wind power industry in California in the
early 1980s, follows with 4,150 megawatts. Spain is in third place,
with 3,300 megawatts. Denmark, which is fourth with 2,500 megawatts,
now gets 18 percent of its electricity from wind. Two thirds of
the capacity added in 2001 was concentrated in the top three countries:
Germany added 1,890 megawatts; the United States, 1,600; and Spain,
1,065. For the United States, this translates into a growth in generating
capacity of some 63 percent in 2001.
Despite this spectacular growth, development of the earth's wind
resources has barely begun. In densely populated Europe, there is
enough easily accessible offshore wind energy to meet all of the
region's electricity needs. In the United States, there is enough
harnessable wind energy in just 3 of the 50 states--North Dakota,
Kansas, and Texas--to satisfy the country's electricity needs. And
China can easily double its current electricity generation from
wind alone.
In the United States, the cost of wind-generated electricity has
fallen from 35� per kilowatt-hour in the mid-1980s to 4� per kilowatt-hour
at prime wind sites in 2001. (See figure.)
Some recent long-term supply contracts have been signed for 3� per
kilowatt-hour. With the U.S. adoption of a wind production tax credit
in 1993 to offset established subsidies for oil, coal, and nuclear
power, growth surged. New wind farms have come online in recent
years in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania,
Texas, Washington, and Wyoming.
Low-cost electricity from wind brings the option of electrolyzing
water to produce hydrogen, which can easily be stored and used to
fuel gas-fired turbines in backup power plants when wind power ebbs.
Over time, hydrogen produced with wind-generated electricity is
the leading candidate to replace natural gas in gas-fired power
plants as gas reserves are depleted.
Hydrogen is also the ideal fuel for the fuel cell engines that every
major automobile manufacturer is now working on. Honda and DaimlerChrysler
both plan to have fuel cell-powered vehicles on the market in 2003.
Wind power offers long-term price stability and energy independence.
Not only are costs low and falling, but with wind-generated electricity
there are no abrupt price hikes, as with natural gas. There is no
OPEC for wind, because wind is widely dispersed. An inexhaustible
source of energy, wind offers us more energy than we can use, and
it does not disrupt climate.
Investment in wind turbine manufacture and wind development has
been highly profitable. While high-tech firms as a group suffered
a disastrous fall in sales, earnings, and stock value in 2001, sales
in the wind industry soared. For example, at Danish-based Nordex,
one of the world's largest turbine manufacturers, turnover during
the first nine months of 2001 was up 19 percent and new orders were
up 56 percent.
Even more impressive than the recent growth in generating capacity
are the plans for future growth. The European Wind Energy Association
has recently revised its 2010 wind capacity projections for Europe
from 40,000 megawatts to 60,000 megawatts.
France, for instance, which for years had ignored wind power, announced
in December 2000 that it would develop 5,000 megawatts of wind-generating
capacity during this decade. A few weeks later, Argentina announced
it was planning to develop 3,000 megawatts of wind-generating capacity
in Patagonia. In April 2001, the United Kingdom sold offshore lease
rights for an estimated 1,500 megawatts of wind-generating capacity
to several different bidders, including Shell Oil. And in May, a
report from Beijing indicated that China would develop up to 2,500
megawatts of wind capacity by 2005.
In the United States, wind-generating capacity is growing by leaps
and bounds. The 300-megawatt Stateline Wind Project under construction
on the border between Oregon and Washington will be the world's
largest wind farm. Texas added some 900 megawatts in several projects
during 2001. In South Dakota, Jim Dehlsen, a pioneer in developing
California's wind energy, has secured the wind rights to 222,000
acres of farm and ranchland in the east central part of the state.
He plans to develop a huge 3,000-megawatt wind farm and to transmit
the electricity across Iowa, supplying Illinois and other states
in the industrial Midwest.
In Europe, offshore projects are now springing up off the coasts
of Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands,
Scotland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
A survey of some 70 wind developers in Germany indicates that they
plan to install 2,500 megawatts of capacity in 2002 and a similar
amount in 2003. If they succeed, they will surpass the German government's
2010 goal of 12,500 megawatts by the end of 2003.
Projecting future growth in such a dynamic industry is complicated,
but once a country has developed 100 megawatts of wind-generating
capacity, it tends to move quickly to develop its wind resources.
The United States crossed this threshold in 1983. In Denmark, this
occurred in 1987. In Germany, it was 1991, followed by India in
1994 and Spain in 1995.
By the end of 1999, Canada, China, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden,
and the United Kingdom had crossed this threshold. During 2000,
Greece, Ireland, and Portugal joined the list. And in 2001, it was
France and Japan. As of early 2002, some 16 countries, containing
half the world's people, have entered the fast-growth phase.
Wind energy in the form of electricity and hydrogen can satisfy
all the various energy needs of a modern economy. Abundant, inexhaustible,
and cheap, wind promises to become the foundation of the new energy
economy. We can now see the shape of this new economy emerging as
wind turbines replace coal mines, hydrogen generators replace oil
refineries, and fuel cell engines replace internal combustion engines.
See
data and graphs (27k, approx. 7 sec at 33.6 speed)
Copyright
© 2002 Earth Policy Institute
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FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
From Earth Policy Institute
Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy:
Building an Economy for the Earth (New York: W.W. Norton
& Company, 2001).
Lester R. Brown, "U.S. Farmers Double Cropping Corn and Wind Energy,"
Earth Policy Alert, June
7, 2000.
Lester R. Brown, "Wind Power: The Missing Link in
the Bush Energy Plan," Earth
Policy Alert, May 31, 2001.
From Other Sources
Christopher Flavin, "Wind Energy Growth Continues,"
in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2001: The Trends that are
Shaping Our Future (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2001),
pp. 44-45.
Wind Energy Projects in the U.S.: a state-by-state
breakdown of existing and planned wind energy projects. Available
at www.awea.org/projects/
Mark Z. Jacobson and Gilbert M. Masters, "Exploiting
Wind Versus Coal," Science, 24 August 2001, p. 1438.
LINKS
Windpower Monthly
www.windpower-monthly.com
American Wind Energy Association
www.awea.org
European Wind Energy Association
www.ewea.org
Danish Wind Industry Association
www.windpower.dk
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