Update 5: January 8, 2002-1
Copyright © 2002 Earth Policy Institute
World Wind Generating Capacity Jumps 31 Percent in 2001
Preliminary data show world wind electric generating
capacity climbing from 17,800 megawatts in 2000 to an estimated 23,300
megawatts in 2001--a dramatic one-year gain of 5,500 megawatts or 31 percent.
As generating costs continue to fall and as public concern about climate
change escalates, the world is fast turning to wind for its electricity.
Since 1995, world wind-generating capacity has increased an astounding
487 percent, or nearly fivefold. During the same period, the use of coal,
the principal alternative for generating electricity, declined by 9 percent.
One megawatt of wind-generating capacity typically will satisfy the electricity
needs of 350 households in an industrial society, or roughly 1,000 people.
Thus, the 23,300 megawatts of generating capacity now in place is sufficient
to meet the residential electricity needs of some 23 million people--equal
to the combined population of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden.
In wind electric-generating capacity, Germany leads the world with 8,000
megawatts, nearly a third of the total. The United States, which launched
the modern wind power industry in California in the early 1980s, follows
with 4,150 megawatts. Spain is in third place, with 3,300 megawatts. Denmark,
which is fourth with 2,500 megawatts, now gets 18 percent of its electricity
from wind. Two thirds of the capacity added in 2001 was concentrated in
the top three countries: Germany added 1,890 megawatts; the United States,
1,600; and Spain, 1,065. For the United States, this translates into a
growth in generating capacity of some 63 percent in 2001.
Despite this spectacular growth, development of the earth's wind resources
has barely begun. In densely populated Europe, there is enough easily
accessible offshore wind energy to meet all of the region's electricity
needs. In the United States, there is enough harnessable wind energy in
just 3 of the 50 states--North Dakota, Kansas, and Texas--to satisfy the
country's electricity needs. And China can easily double its current electricity
generation from wind alone.
In the United States, the cost of wind-generated electricity has fallen
from 35� per kilowatt-hour in the mid-1980s to 4� per kilowatt-hour at
prime wind sites in 2001. (See figure.)
Some recent long-term supply contracts have been signed for 3� per kilowatt-hour.
With the U.S. adoption of a wind production tax credit in 1993 to offset
established subsidies for oil, coal, and nuclear power, growth surged.
New wind farms have come online in recent years in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas,
Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming.
Low-cost electricity from wind brings the option of electrolyzing water
to produce hydrogen, which can easily be stored and used to fuel gas-fired
turbines in backup power plants when wind power ebbs. Over time, hydrogen
produced with wind-generated electricity will likely replace natural gas
in gas-fired power plants as gas reserves are depleted.
Hydrogen is also the ideal fuel for the fuel cell engines that every major
automobile manufacturer is now working on. Honda and DaimlerChrysler both
plan to have fuel cell-powered vehicles on the market in 2003.
Wind power offers long-term price stability and energy independence. Not
only are costs low and falling, but with wind-generated electricity there
are no abrupt price hikes, as with natural gas. There is no OPEC for wind,
because wind is widely dispersed. An inexhaustible source of energy, wind
offers us more energy than we can use, and it does not disrupt climate.
Investment in wind turbine manufacture and wind development has been highly
profitable. While high-tech firms as a group suffered a disastrous fall
in sales, earnings, and stock value in 2001, sales in the wind industry
soared. For example, at Danish-based Nordex, one of the world's largest
turbine manufacturers, turnover during the first nine months of 2001 was
up 19 percent and new orders were up 56 percent.
Even more impressive than the recent growth in generating capacity are
the plans for future growth. The European Wind Energy Association has
recently revised its 2010 wind capacity projections for Europe from 40,000
megawatts to 60,000 megawatts.
France, for instance, which for years had ignored wind power, announced
in December 2000 that it would develop 5,000 megawatts of wind-generating
capacity during this decade. A few weeks later, Argentina announced it
was planning to develop 3,000 megawatts of wind-generating capacity in
Patagonia. In April 2001, the United Kingdom sold offshore lease rights
for an estimated 1,500 megawatts of wind-generating capacity to several
different bidders, including Shell Oil. And in May, a report from Beijing
indicated that China would develop up to 2,500 megawatts of wind capacity
by 2005.
In the United States, wind-generating capacity is growing by leaps and
bounds. The 300-megawatt Stateline Wind Project under construction on
the border between Oregon and Washington will be the world's largest wind
farm. Texas added some 900 megawatts in several projects during 2001.
In South Dakota, Jim Dehlsen, a pioneer in developing California's wind
energy, has secured the wind rights to 222,000 acres of farm and ranchland
in the east central part of the state. He plans to develop a huge 3,000-megawatt
wind farm and to transmit the electricity across Iowa, supplying Illinois
and other states in the industrial Midwest.
In Europe, offshore projects are now springing up off the coasts of Belgium,
Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Scotland, Sweden,
and the United Kingdom.
A survey of some 70 wind developers in Germany indicates that they plan
to install 2,500 megawatts of capacity in 2002 and a similar amount in
2003. If they succeed, they will surpass the German government's 2010
goal of 12,500 megawatts by the end of 2003.
Projecting future growth in such a dynamic industry is complicated, but
once a country has developed 100 megawatts of wind-generating capacity,
it tends to move quickly to develop its wind resources. The United States
crossed this threshold in 1983. In Denmark, this occurred in 1987. In
Germany, it was 1991, followed by India in 1994 and Spain in 1995.
By the end of 1999, Canada, China, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, and
the United Kingdom had crossed this threshold. During 2000, Greece, Ireland,
and Portugal joined the list. And in 2001, it was France and Japan. As
of early 2002, some 16 countries, containing half the world's people,
have entered the fast-growth phase.
Wind energy in the form of electricity and hydrogen can satisfy all the
various energy needs of a modern economy. Abundant, inexhaustible, and
cheap, wind promises to become the foundation of the new energy economy.
We can now see the shape of this new economy emerging as wind turbines
replace coal mines, hydrogen generators replace oil refineries, and fuel
cell engines replace internal combustion engines.
Copyright ©
2002 Earth Policy Institute
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
From Earth Policy Institute
Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy:
Building an Economy for the Earth (New York: W.W. Norton & Company,
2001).
Lester R. Brown, "U.S. Farmers Double Cropping Corn and Wind Energy,"
Earth Policy Alert, June 7,
2000.
Lester R. Brown, "Wind Power: The Missing Link in the
Bush Energy Plan," Earth Policy Alert,
May 31, 2001.
From Other Sources
Christopher Flavin, "Wind Energy Growth Continues," in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2001: The Trends that are Shaping Our Future (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2001), pp. 44-45.
Wind Energy Projects in the U.S.: a state-by-state breakdown of existing and planned wind energy projects. Available at www.awea.org/projects/
Mark Z. Jacobson and Gilbert M. Masters, "Exploiting Wind Versus Coal," Science, 24 August 2001, p. 1438.
LINKS
Windpower Monthly www.windpower-monthly.com
American Wind Energy Association www.awea.org
European Wind Energy Association www.ewea.org