October 4, 2001-1
Copyright © 2001 Earth Policy Institute
Worsening Water Shortages Threaten China's
Food Security
Lester R. Brown
A little-noticed survey released in Beijing in
mid-August reveals that China's water situation is far more serious
than realized. The water table under the North China Plain, which
produces over half of China's wheat and a third of its corn, is
falling faster than thought.
Overpumping has largely depleted the shallow aquifer,
reducing the amount of water that can be pumped from it to the amount
of recharge from precipitation. This is forcing well drillers to
go down to the region's deep aquifer, which, unfortunately, is not
replenishable.
The study, conducted by the Geological Environmental
Monitoring Institute (GEMI) in Beijing, reported that under Heibei
Province in the heart of the North China Plain, the average level
of the deep aquifer dropped 2.9 meters (nearly 10 feet) in 2000.
Around some cities in the province, it fell by 6 meters.
He Qingcheng, head of the GEMI groundwater monitoring
team, believes the fast-deteriorating water situation should be
getting far more official attention. He notes that with depletion
of the deep aquifer under the North China Plain, the region is losing
its last water reserve-its only safety cushion.
His concerns are mirrored in a new World Bank
report that says, "Anecdotal evidence suggests that deep wells [drilled]
around Beijing now have to reach 1,000 meters (more than half a
mile) to tap fresh water, adding dramatically to the cost of supply."
In unusually strong language for a Bank report, it forecasts "catastrophic
consequences for future generations" unless water use and supply
can quickly be brought back into balance.
Further evidence of the gravity of the water situation
in the North China Plain can be seen in the frenzy of well drilling
in recent years. At the end of 1996, the five provinces of the North
China Plain-Heibei, Henan, Shandong, and the city provinces of Beijing
and Tianjin-had 3.6 million wells, the bulk of them for irrigation.
During 1997, 99,900 wells were abandoned as they ran dry. Some 221,900
new wells were drilled. The desperate quest for water in China is
evident as well drillers chase the water table downward.
The northern half of China is drying out. Demands
on the three rivers that flow eastward into the North China Plain-the
Hai, the Yellow, and the Huai-are excessive, leading them to run
dry during the dry season, sometimes for extended periods of time.
The flow of the Yellow River into Shandong Province-the last of
the eight provinces it flows through en route to the sea, and China's
leading grain-producing province-has been reduced from 40 billion
cubic meters (1 cu. meter = 1 ton) a year in the early 1980s to
25 billon cubic meters during the 1990s.
As water tables fall, springs dry up, streams
cease to flow, rivers run dry, and lakes disappear. Hebei Province
once had 1,052 lakes. Only 83 remain.
The water deficit in the North China Plain, the
excess of use over the sustainable supply, may now exceed 40 billion
tons per year. At present that deficit is being filled by groundwater
mining, but when aquifers are depleted and there is nothing more
to mine, the basin's water supply will be cut by nearly 40 percent.
In the Hai River basin-where industry and cities, including Beijing
and Tianjin, now get priority-irrigated agriculture could largely
disappear by 2010, forcing a shift back to less productive rain-fed
agriculture.
Between now and 2010, when China's population
is projected to grow by 126 million, the World Bank projects that
the country's urban water demand will increase from 50 billion cubic
meters to 80 billion, a growth of 60 percent. Industrial water demand,
meanwhile, will increase from 127 billion to 206 billion cubic meters,
an expansion of 62 percent.
With water worth easily 70 times as much in industry
as in agriculture, farmers almost always lose in the competition
with cities. As water tables continue to fall, rising pumping costs
will make underground water too costly for many farmers to use for
irrigation.
In addition to spreading water scarcity, numerous
environmental and economic forces are reducing China's grain production.
As farmers attempt to maximize their income from small plots, for
example, they are shifting from grain to high-value fruit and vegetable
crops.
China has been striving valiantly to remain self-sufficient
in grain since 1994. It did so by raising support prices of grain
well above the world market level, by overplowing land on a scale
that helped create the world's largest dust bowl, and by overpumping
the aquifers under the North China Plain.
The combination of weak prices, falling water
tables, and severe drought dropped the grain harvest in 2001 to
335 million tons, down from the all-time high of 392 million tons
in 1998. This will fall short of projected consumption by 46 million
tons. The emergence of this deficit-easily the largest in China's
history-on the heels of last year's deficit of 34 million tons raises
questions about future food security.
The back-to-back grain shortfalls in the last
two years at a time when China's imports of grain are negligible
have dropped stocks by roughly 81 million tons. With its accessible
stocks of grain now largely depleted, another sizable crop shortfall
in 2002 would likely force China to import large amounts of grain
to avoid rising food prices.
China's grain imports could climb quickly, as
its recent experience with soybeans shows. When grain support prices
were raised in 1994, resources were diverted from soybeans--the
nation's fourth ranking crop after wheat, rice, and corn. As a result,
the soybean harvest has fallen 6 percent since 1994 while demand
has doubled. In an abrupt turnaround, China has gone from being
a small net exporter of soybeans in 1993 to being the world's largest
importer in 2001, bringing in 14 million of the 30 million tons
it consumes.
If China has another sizable grain harvest shortfall
in 2002, it will likely be forced to import grain far in excess
of the 7 million tons of wheat and 5 million tons of corn that it
must promise to import if it joins the World Trade Organization
in late 2001, as expected.
With its aquifers being depleted, China is now
reconsidering its options for reestablishing a balance between water
use and supply. Three possible initiatives stand out: water conservation,
diversion of water from the south to the north, and grain imports.
A south/north diversion to transport water from the Yangtze River
basin will cost tens of billions of dollars and displace hundreds
of thousands of people. A comparable investment in more water-efficient
industrial practices, more water-efficient household appliances,
and, above all, the use of more-efficient irrigation practices would
likely yield more water. Since it takes 1,000 tons of water to produce
1 ton of grain, importing grain is the most efficient way to import
water.
Regardless of whether it concentrates solely on
conservation or also does a south/north diversion, China will almost
certainly have to turn to the world market for grain imports. If
it imports even 10 percent of its grain supply--40 million tons--it
will become overnight the largest grain importer, putting intense
pressure on exportable grain supplies and driving up world prices.
If this happens, we probably won't need to read about it in the
newspapers. It will be evident at the supermarket checkout counter.
(27k, approx. 7 sec at 33.6 speed)
Copyright
© 2001 Earth Policy Institute
Email this Update to a friend |
|
Email this Update to a friend
Printer friendly format
View Data
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
From Worldwatch Institute
Sandra Postel, Pillar of Sand (New York:
W.W. Norton & Co., 1999).
From Other Sources
Fred Gale et al., "China Grain Policy at a Crossroads,"
Agricultural Outlook, (Washington, DC: US Department of Agriculture
(USDA) Economic Research Service, September 2001).
Michael Ma, "Northern Cities Sinking as Water Table
Falls," South China Morning Post, 11 August 2001.
Sandra L. Postel and Aaron T. Wolf, "Dehydrating
Conflict," Foreign Policy, September/October 2001, pp. 60-67.
John Wade and Zhang Jianping, China: Grain and
Feed Grain Update (Beijing, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service,
19 July 2001).
World Bank, China:
Agenda for Water Sector Strategy for North China (Washington,
DC: 2 April 2001).
Hong Yang and Alexander Zehnder, "China's Regional
Water Scarcity and Implications for Grain Supply and Trade," Environment
and Planning A, vol. 33, January 2001, pp. 79-95.
LINKS
International Water Management Institute
http:/www.iwmi.cgiar.org/
Worldwatch Institute, Water Mini Site
http:/www.worldwatch.org/
taxonomy/term/102
|