Eco-Economy Indicators: WIND ELECTRIC GENERATION

Wind Electric Generation Soaring

Lester R. Brown

World wind electric generating capacity climbed from 17,500 megawatts (MW) in 2000 to 24,000 MW in 2001—a dramatic one-year gain of 6,500 MW or 37 percent. As generating costs continue to fall and as public concern about climate change escalates, the world is fast turning to wind for its electricity.

Since 1995, world wind generating capacity has increased an astounding fivefold. In stark contrast, the use of coal—the principal alternative for generating electricity—peaked in 1996 and has declined by 6 percent since then.

One megawatt of wind generating capacity typically will satisfy the electricity needs of 350 households in an industrial society, or roughly 1,000 people. Thus, the 24,000 MW of generating capacity now in place is sufficient to meet the residential electricity needs of some 24 million people—equal to the combined populations of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden.

In wind electric generating capacity, Germany leads the world with 8,750 MW, more than a third of the total. The United States, which launched the modern wind power industry in California in the early 1980s, follows with 4,250 MW. Spain is in third place, with 3,300 MW. Denmark, which is fourth with 2,400 MW, now gets more than 15 percent of its electricity from wind. Almost two thirds of the capacity added in 2001 was concentrated in the top three countries: Germany added 2,600 MW; the United States, 1,700; and Spain, 930. For the United States, this translates into a growth in generating capacity of some 67 percent in 2001.

Despite this spectacular growth, development of the earth's wind resources has barely begun. In densely populated Europe, there is enough easily accessible offshore wind energy to meet all of the region's electricity needs. In the United States, the wind-rich states in the Great Plains have enough harnessable wind energy to meet the country's electricity needs. And China can easily double its current electricity generation from wind alone.

The cost of wind-generated electricity at prime wind sites has fallen dramatically in the United States over the last 15 years—from 35� per kilowatt-hour in the mid-1980s to 4� per kilowatt-hour in 2001. (See Figure 2-8.) A few long-term supply contracts have even been signed recently for 3� per kilowatt-hour. With the U.S. adoption of a wind production tax credit (PTC) in 1993 to offset established subsidies for oil, coal, and nuclear power, growth surged. New wind farms came online in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming. In March 2002, the PTC was extended until the end of 2003, setting the stage for continuing rapid growth.

Low-cost electricity from wind brings the option of electrolyzing water to produce hydrogen, which can easily be stored and used to fuel gas-fired turbines in backup power plants when wind power ebbs. Over time, hydrogen produced with wind-generated electricity is the leading candidate to replace natural gas in gas-fired power plants as gas reserves are depleted.

Hydrogen is also the ideal fuel for the fuel-cell engines that every major automobile manufacturer is now working on. Honda and DaimlerChrysler both plan to have fuel-cell-powered vehicles on the market in 2003.

Wind power offers long-term price stability and energy independence. Not only are costs low and falling, but with wind-generated electricity there are no abrupt price hikes, as there are with natural gas. There is no OPEC for wind, because wind is widely dispersed. An inexhaustible source of energy, wind offers more energy than society can use, and it does not disrupt climate.

Investment in wind turbine manufacture and wind development has been highly profitable. While high-tech firms as a group suffered a disastrous fall in sales, earnings, and stock value in 2001, sales in the wind industry soared. At Danish-based Nordex, for example, one of the world's largest turbine manufacturers, turnover during the first half of fiscal year 2001/2002 was up 47 percent.

Even more impressive than the recent growth in generating capacity are the plans for future growth. The European Wind Energy Association has recently revised its 2010 wind capacity projections for Europe from 40,000 megawatts to 60,000 megawatts.

France, which for years had ignored wind power, announced in December 2000 that it would develop 5,000 megawatts of wind-generating capacity during this decade. A few weeks later, Argentina announced it was planning to develop 3,000 megawatts of wind-generating capacity in Patagonia. In April 2001, the United Kingdom sold offshore lease rights for an estimated 1,500 megawatts of wind-generating capacity to several different bidders, including Shell Oil. And in early 2002, China announced plans to develop up to 1,200 megawatts of wind capacity by 2005.

In the United States, wind generating capacity is growing by leaps and bounds. The 261-megawatt Stateline Wind Project on the border between Oregon and Washington will be expanded to 300 megawatts later this year, making it the world's largest wind farm. Texas added some 900 megawatts in several projects during 2001, including a 278-MW wind farm at King Mountain in west Texas, currently the world's largest. In South Dakota, Jim Dehlsen, a pioneer in developing California's wind energy, has secured the wind rights to 90,000 hectares (222,000 acres) of farm and ranchland in the east central part of the state. He plans to develop a huge 3,000-megawatt wind farm and to transmit the electricity across Iowa, supplying Illinois and other states in the industrial Midwest.

In Europe, offshore projects are now springing up off the coasts of Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Scotland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

The German Wind Energy Institute projects installation of 2,900 MW in 2002, and 2,400 MW in 2003. If these installations materialize as projected, total installed capacity in the country will easily surpass the German government's 2010 goal of 12,500 MW by the end of 2003.

Projecting future growth in such a dynamic industry is complicated, but once a country has developed 100 megawatts of wind-generating capacity, it tends to move quickly to develop its wind resources. The United States crossed this threshold in 1983. In Denmark, this occurred in 1987. In Germany, it was 1991, followed by India in 1994 and Spain in 1995.

By the end of 1999, Canada, China, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United Kingdom had also all crossed this threshold. During 2000, Greece, Ireland, and Portugal joined the list. And in 2001, it was France and Japan. So as of early 2002, some 16 countries—home to half the world's people—have entered the fast-growth phase in wind power development.

Wind energy in the form of electricity and hydrogen can satisfy all the various energy needs of a modern economy, and it promises to become the foundation of the new energy economy.We can now see the shape of this new economy emerging as wind turbines replace coal mines, hydrogen generators replace oil refineries, and fuel-cell engines replace internal combustion engines.

ADDITIONAL DATA

Figure 1: Cost Per Kilowatt-Hour of Wind-Powered Electricity in the United States, 1982-2001

Figure 2 : Wind Energy Generating Capacity for the World and Selected Countries, 1980-2001

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DATA

Figure 1: Cost Per Kilowatt-Hour of Wind-Powered Electricity in the United States, 1982-2001

Figure 2 : Wind Energy Generating Capacity for the World and Selected Countries, 1980-2001

OTHER INFORMATION FROM THE EARTH POLICY INSTITUTE

ECO-ECONOMY UPDATES

World Wind Generating Capacity Jumps 31 Percent in 2001

Wind Power: The Missing Link in the Bush Energy Plan

U.S. Farmers Double Cropping Corn and Wind Energy

BOOKS

Lester R. Brown, Janet Larsen, and Bernie Fischlowitz-Roberts, The Earth Policy Reader (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2002).

Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy: Building an Economy for the Earth (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2001).

LINKS

American Wind Energy Association
http:/www.awea.org

Danish Wind Industry Association http:/www.windpower.dk

European Wind Energy Association
http:/www.ewea.org

Windpower Monthly
http:/www.windpower-monthly.com

Earth Policy Institute
Email: [email protected]