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May 5, 2004-9
Copyright © 2004 Earth Policy Institute
WORLD FOOD SECURITY DETERIORATING:
Food Crunch in 2005 Now Likely
Lester R. Brown
Closing the gap in the world grain
harvest this year following four consecutive grain harvest shortfalls,
each larger than the one before, will not be easy. The grain shortfall
of 105 million tons in 2003 is easily the largest on record, amounting
to 5 percent of annual world consumption of 1,930 million tons.
The four harvest shortfalls have dropped world carryover stocks
of grain to the lowest level in 30 years, amounting to only 59 days
of consumption. Wheat and corn prices are at 7-year highs. Rice
prices are at 5-year highs. (See data.)
Can the world's farmers close the gap this year? In addition to
the usual uncertainties farmers face, they must now contend with
two newer trends—falling
water tables and rising temperatures. If there is another large
shortfall, grain prices will continue the rise of recent months,
driving up food prices worldwide.
The production gain we need this year is huge. To start, we need
to increase world grain output enough in 2004 to eliminate last
year's shortfall of 105 million tons. In addition, we need 15 million
tons to feed the 74 million people who will be added to world population
this year. With the grain left in the bin as this year's harvest
begins at the dangerously low level of 59 days of consumption, we
also need to rebuild to the 70-day level that is considered the
minimum needed for food security. If we try to do just half of that
rebuilding this year, going up to 65 days of consumption, we will
need another 30 million tons.
There we have it. Maintaining the current precarious balance between
production and consumption will require this year's grain harvest
to grow by 120 million tons. But modestly boosting food security
will require a total gain of 150 million tons. Unfortunately, the
chances of increasing it by even 120 million tons appear to be less
than one in ten. A fifth consecutive year in which the harvest falls
short of consumption seems likely. The question is, how much will
it fall short and how will it affect world food prices?
In estimating this year's grain harvest, we know more about the
prospect for the wheat crop than we do for rice or corn simply because
the harvest is dominated by the northern hemisphere's winter wheat,
which was planted last fall. Among major producers, the planted
area compared with 2003 is down in China, the United States, Russia,
and the Ukraine, but up in India and the European Union with little
change in area overall. Given the expected recovery of wheat yields
in Europe and India from the heat- and drought-reduced levels of
last year, this year's world wheat crop could easily be up by 35
million tons.
Because rice is water dependent, neither the planted area nor yields
vary much from year to year. The only big increase this year is
likely to come in China, where the government is making an all-out
effort—including
higher government procurement prices—to
reverse a four-year decline in the rice area. Early estimates indicate
China's rice crop could rise from 115 million tons to 122 million
tons this year. Allowing for modest gains in other rice-producing
countries, an increase of 12 million tons over last year's harvest
appears within reach.
Estimating the world harvest of corn, used mostly for feed, starts
with the United States—which
accounts for 40 percent of the crop. The U.S. area planted to corn
is expected to be roughly the same as last year. Since the U.S.
corn harvest is largely rainfed, and thus vulnerable to both heat
and drought, yield can vary widely. It is doubtful that American
farmers can match last year's record corn yield, but we will optimistically
assume they can and that better crops elsewhere will be enough to
raise the 2004 world corn crop by 10 million tons.
For the minor grains—barley,
rye, oats, sorghum, and millet—where
production has been falling in recent years, we will assume a 3-million-ton
gain.
Combining the estimated increases of 35 million tons for wheat,
12 million tons for rice, 10 million tons for corn, and 3 million
tons for other grains gives an increase of 60 million tons over
last year's harvest. This is an improvement, but it would still
be 60 million tons short of what we need to close the gap. And if
we include the goal of modestly rebuilding stocks, we will be short
by 90 million tons.
As noted earlier, falling water tables and rising temperatures are
making it more difficult for farmers to expand grain production.
Water tables are falling and wells are going dry under the North
China Plain, which produces a third of China's corn and half of
its wheat; in most states in India, including the Punjab, its breadbasket;
and under the southern Great Plains and southwest of the United
States. In addition, farmers in all three countries are losing water
to cities.
Beyond this, in dozens of smaller countries farmers are also losing
irrigation water to aquifer depletion and to cities. Record or near-record
temperatures have withered crops in key food-producing regions of
the world in each of the last two years. Since 1970, the earth's
average temperature has risen 0.6 degrees Celsius. Three of the
four warmest years on record came during the last four years—years
of crop shortfalls. This year's average global temperature will
almost certainly be above the norm (defined as the average for 1950-80).
What we do not know yet is how much above it will be and which food-producing
regions will be most affected.
If the estimated 2004 shortfall of 60 million tons materializes,
it will take the world into uncharted territory. Either grain stocks
will drop by 12 days of consumption, falling to an all-time low
of 47 days, or food prices will rise and force a reduction in consumption—something
that will be particularly difficult for the 3 billion people who
live on less than $2 a day. In reality, the shortfall will be covered
by some combination of declining stocks and rising prices.
A shortfall on the scale projected almost guarantees the emergence
of a politics of food scarcity in 2005 of the sort that occurred
in the early 1970s, when exporting countries such as the United
States restricted grain exports in order to curb the rise in domestic
food prices.
There are already early signs of this. In September 2002, Canada—on
the heels of a heat-reduced harvest—announced
it would limit wheat exports to assure that domestic needs were
satisfied. Two months later, Australia, also experiencing a drought-reduced
harvest, limited exports to its traditional customers only. In mid-2003,
the European Union stopped issuing grain export certificates for
several months. And in January 2004, Russia imposed an export tax
on wheat to combat rising bread prices.
The risk is that a year from now, lower grain stocks and soaring
food prices could destabilize governments in low-income grain-importing
countries on a scale that would disrupt global economic progress.
If this lowers the Nikkei stock index, the Dow Jones 500, and other
key indicators, we may realize that our economic future depends
on a worldwide effort to stabilize population, raise water productivity,
and stabilize climate—and
at wartime speed.
Copyright
© 2004 Earth Policy Institute
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FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
From Earth Policy Institute
Lester R. Brown, Plan
B: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble
(New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2003).
Lester R. Brown, Janet Larsen, and Bernie Fischlowitz-Roberts,
The Earth Policy Reader (New York: W.W. Norton & Company,
2002).
Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy:
Building an Economy for the Earth (New York: W.W. Norton
& Company, 2001).
Lester R. Brown, "World Food Prices Rising: Environmental
Neglect Shrinking Harvests in Key Countries," Eco-Economy
Update, 28 April 2004.
Lester R. Brown, "China's Shrinking Grain Harvest," Eco-Economy
Update, 10 March 2004.
Lester R. Brown, "Wakeup Call on the Food Front,"
Eco-Economy Update, 16
December 2003.
Lester R. Brown, "World Facing Fourth Consecutive
Grain Harvest Shortfall," Eco-Economy
Update, 17 September 2003.
Lester R. Brown, "China Loosing War With Advancing
Deserts," Eco-Economy Update,
5 August 2003.
From Other Sources
U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates, http:/www.usda.gov/oce
/waob/wasde/latest.pdf
LINKS
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
http:/www.fao.org
United States Department of Agriculture
http:/www.usda.gov
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