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August 27, 2003-7
Copyright © 2003 Earth Policy Institute
RECORD TEMPERATURES SHRINKING WORLD GRAIN
HARVEST: Monthly Drop Equal to One Half of U.S. Wheat Harvest
Lester R. Brown
On August 12 at 8:30 a.m., the U.S.
Department of Agriculture released its monthly estimate of the world
grain harvest, reporting a 32-million-ton drop from the July estimate.
When grain futures markets opened later in the morning, prices of
wheat, rice, and corn jumped.
This 32-million-ton drop, equal to half the U.S. wheat harvest,
was concentrated in Europe where record-high temperatures have withered
crops. The affected region stretched from the United Kingdom and
France in the west through the Ukraine in the east. The searing
heat damaged crops in virtually every country in Europe.
The soaring temperatures of the past several weeks rewrote the record
book. On August 10, the temperature in London reached 100 degrees
Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius)—the
first triple-digit reading on record in the United Kingdom. France
had 11 consecutive days in August with temperatures above 35 degrees
Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit). In Italy, temperatures reached
41 degrees Celsius (105 degrees Fahrenheit).
The heat wave in Europe started in early summer when Switzerland,
situated in the heart of Europe, experienced the hottest June since
recordkeeping began 140 years ago. In July the heat wave spread
across the rest of Europe.
Crops suffered the most in Eastern Europe, which is harvesting its
smallest wheat crop in 30 years. In the Ukraine, the wheat crop,
already severely damaged by winter kill, was reduced further by
the heat, plummeting from 21 million tons last year to 5 million
tons this year. As a result, the Ukraine, a leading wheat exporter
last year, has been forced to import wheat as bread prices threaten
to spiral out of control. Romania, which was particularly hard hit
by heat and drought, is expecting to harvest the smallest wheat
crop on record. The Czech Republic is expecting its poorest grain
harvest in 25 years.
The prolonged heat wave, which persisted through mid August, also
reduced the German grain harvest. The German Farmers Union reports
that in southeastern Germany some farmers may lose half of their
grain crop.
This reduced estimate of the world grain harvest will expand the
world grain shortfall this year to 82 million tons. With projected
world grain consumption of 1,912 million tons exceeding production
of 1,830 million tons by 4 percent, the world is engaged in a massive
drawdown of grain stocks. (See .)
With this year's drawdown, world grain stocks have dropped to the
lowest level since the early 1970s. When world grain stocks dropped
to a dangerously low level in 1973, world prices of wheat and rice
doubled.
As atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels
climb higher each year in an unbroken ascent, they are creating
a greenhouse effect, raising the earth's temperature. Over the last
quarter century the earth's average temperature has risen 0.7 degrees
Celsius or more than 1 degree Fahrenheit.
As temperatures rise, crop-withering heat waves are becoming more
and more common. Last year the grain harvests in India and the United
States were hit hard by high temperatures and drought. This year
Europe is bearing the brunt.
During this life-threatening heat wave Europeans may have felt that
the temperature could not rise much higher, but the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of some 1,500 of the world's
leading climate scientists, is projecting a rise in average global
temperature of somewhere between 2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit
(1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius) during this century if we continue
with business-as-usual energy policies.
Even if the earth's temperature increases only a few degrees, as
in the low end of the IPCC projections, we will likely see heat
waves far more intense than anything we can easily imagine. If rising
temperatures shrink harvests and drive up food prices, consumer
pressure to reduce the use of fossil fuels will intensify. Indeed,
rising food prices could be the first global economic indicator
to signal the need for a fundamental shift in energy policy, one
that would move the world toward renewable energy sources and away
from climate-disrupting fossil fuels.
Copyright
© 2003 Earth Policy Institute
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FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
From Earth Policy Institute
Lester R. Brown, Plan
B: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble
(New York: W.W. Norton & Company, forthcoming 2003).
Lester R. Brown, Janet Larsen, and Bernie Fischlowitz-Roberts,
The
Earth Policy Reader (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2002).
Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy:
Building an Economy for the Earth (New York: W.W. Norton
& Company, 2001).
Lester R. Brown, "Rising Temperatures and Falling
Water Tables Raising Food Prices," Eco-Economy
Update, 21 August 2002.
From Other Sources
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agriculture
Service, Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, "Central
Europe's Dwindling Wheat and Corn Crop," 12 August 2003.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12 August 2003.
LINKS
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Surface Temperature
Analysis
http:/data.giss.nasa.gov/
gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
http:/www.ipcc.ch
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
http:/www.usda.gov
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