|
June 11, 2002-8
Copyright © 2002 Earth Policy Institute
Sales of Solar Cells Take Off
Bernie Fischlowitz-Roberts
Last year world solar cell production soared to 395 megawatts (MW),
up 37 percent over 2000. This annual growth in output, now comparable
in size to a new power plant, is set to take off in the years ahead
as production costs fall. Cumulative solar cell or photovoltaic
(PV) capacity now exceeds 1,840 MW. (See table.)
The top five producers in 2001 were Sharp,
BP Solar, Kyocera, Siemens Solar, and AstroPower, accounting for
64 percent of global output. Japanese manufacturers, with 43 percent
of the world total, benefited from government policies to encourage
solar cell use. The 70,000 Roofs Program, which initially provided
a 50-percent cash subsidy for grid-connected residential systems,
has been the primary driver of Japan's PV market expansion. The
subsidy declined to 35 percent in 2000 as production increased and
solar cell prices dropped. In addition to residential subsidies,
government spending of $271 million in fiscal year 2001--on research
and development, demonstration programs, and market incentives--was
key to the growth.
In contrast to Japan, the U.S. government
spent only $60 million on solar programs in 2000. The U.S. share
of the global market--24 percent--was surpassed in 2001 by the European
Union (EU), which now accounts for 25 percent. Government commitments
to renewable energy are more robust in the EU than in the United
States. In Germany, the Renewable Energy Act of 2000 offers citizens
preferable loan terms for purchasing solar systems, and gives them
a guaranteed price when feeding excess energy back into the power
grid (known as net metering). As a result of such support, the German
PV industry--the most advanced in Europe--is projected to grow from
its current installed capacity of 113 MW in 2001 to 438 MW by 2004.
As a result of government policies in Japan,
grid-connected residential installations totaling 100 MW dominated
sales in 2001. Germany's grid-connected systems accounted for around
75 MW. The 32 MW installed in the United States were divided between
grid-connected systems and those in remote areas not linked to a
power grid. All of India's 18 MW were for such off-grid installations.
The 120-130 MW installed in some 50-60 developing nations were also
for off-grid projects.
Both Japan and the United States were net
exporters of solar cells. Almost two thirds of U.S. output was exported,
while Japan exported 42 percent of its total.
The cost of electricity from solar cells
remains higher than from wind or coal-fired power plants for grid-connected
customers, but it is falling fast due to economies of scale as rising
demand drives industry expansion. Solar cells currently cost around
$3.50 per watt for crystalline cells, and $2 per watt for thin-film
wafers, which are less efficient but can be integrated into building
materials. Industry analysts note that between 1976 and 2000, each
doubling of cumulative production resulted in a price drop of 20
percent. Some suggest that prices may fall even more dramatically
in the future.
The European Photovoltaic Industry Association
suggests that grid-connected rooftop solar systems could account
for 16 percent of electricity consumption in the 30 members of the
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development by 2010.
If costs of rooftop PV systems fall to $3 per watt by the middle
of this decade, as projections suggest, the market for residential
rooftop solar systems will expand. In areas where home mortgages
finance PV systems and where net metering laws exist, demand could
reach 40 gigawatts, or 100 times global production in 2001.
More than a million homes worldwide, mainly
in villages in developing countries, now get their electricity from
solar cells. For the 1.7 billion people not connected to an electrical
grid, solar cells are typically the cheapest source of electricity.
In remote areas, delivering small amounts of electricity through
a large grid is cost-prohibitive, so people not close to an electric
grid will likely obtain electricity from solar cells. If micro-credit
financing is arranged, the monthly payment for photovoltaic systems
is often comparable to what a family would spend on candles or kerosene
for lamps. After the loan is paid off, typically in two to four
years, the family obtains free electricity for the remainder of
the system's life.
Photovoltaic systems provide high-quality
electric lighting, which can improve educational opportunities,
provide access to information, and help families be more productive
after sunset. A shift to solar energy also brings health benefits.
Solar electricity allows for the refrigeration of vaccines and other
essentials, playing a part in improving public health. For many
rural residents in remote areas, a shift to solar electricity improves
indoor air quality. PV systems benefit outdoor air quality as well.
The replacement of a kerosene lamp with a 40-watt solar module eliminates
up to 106 kilograms of carbon emissions a year.
In addition to promising applications in
the developing world, solar also benefits industrial nations. Even
in the UK, a cloudy country, putting modern PV technology on all
suitable roofs would generate more electricity than the nation consumes
in a year. This would eliminate all greenhouse gas emissions from
nationwide electricity generation, removing almost 200 million tons
of carbon dioxide annually from the atmosphere.
Recent research surrounding zero-energy
homes, where solar panels are integrated into the design and construction
of extremely energy-efficient new houses, presents a promising opportunity
for increased use of solar cells. Julius Poston, a progressive builder
in the southeastern United States, builds homes that use half the
energy of typical ones. His company, Certified Living, has constructed
two prototype zero-energy homes with integrated solar panels. If
eventually adopted on a wide scale, this groundbreaking concept
could eliminate the pollution associated with fossil fuel-generated
electricity for households.
Continued strong growth suggests that the
solar cell market will play a prominent role in providing renewable,
non-polluting sources of energy in both developing and industrial
countries. A number of policy measures can help ensure the future
growth of solar power. Removing distorting subsidies of fossil fuels
would allow solar cells to compete in a more equitable marketplace.
Expanding net metering laws to other countries and the parts of
the United States that currently do not have them will make owning
solar home systems more economical by requiring utilities to purchase
excess electricity from residential solar systems. Finally, revolving
loan funds and other providers of microcredit are essential to the
rapid spread of solar cell technologies in developing nations.
Solar cell manufacturers are beginning to
sense the enormous growth in the market that lies ahead. Japan-based
Sharp Corporation, already the world's leading producer of solar
cells, plans to double its capacity in 2002, going from 94 to 200
megawatts. For the industry as a whole, output is expected to increase
at 40-50 percent annually over the next few years, bringing the
solar age ever closer.
See
data and graph
Copyright
© 2002 Earth Policy Institute
Email this Update to a friend
|
|
Email this Update to a friend
Printer friendly format
View Data
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
From Earth Policy Institute
Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy:
Building an Economy for the Earth (New York: W.W. Norton
& Company, 2001).
From Other Sources
European Photovoltaic Industry Association and Greenpeace,
The Solar Generation: Solar Electricity for Over 1 Billion People
and 2 Million Jobs by 2020 (Brussels: September 2001).
Molly O. Sheehan, "Solar Cell Use Rises Quickly,"
in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2002 (New York: W.W.
Norton & Company), pp. 44-45.
LINKS
Photon International http:/www.photon-
magazine.com
Solar Electric Light Fund http:/www.self.org
American Solar Energy Society http:/www.ases.org
European Photovoltaic Industry Association
http:/www.epia.org
Renewable Energy Access
http:/www.renewable
energyaccess.com/rea/home
Solarbuzz
http:/www.solarbuzz.com
|
