RESTRUCTURING THE PROTEIN ECONOMY
Chapter 7. Feeding Everyone Well
Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy: Building an Economy for the Earth
(W.W. Norton & Co., NY: 2001).
The demand for meatbeef,
pork, poultry, and muttontypically
rises with income, perhaps driven by the taste for meat acquired
during our 4 million years as hunter-gatherers. This innate hunger
for animal protein, which manifests itself in every society, has
lifted the world demand for meat each year for 40 consecutive years.
One of the most predictable trends in the global economy, world
meat production climbed from 44 million tons in 1950 to 233 million
tons in 2000, more than a fivefold increase. (See Figure 7-3.) This
growth, roughly double that of population, raised meat intake per
person worldwide from 17 kilograms to 38 kilograms.39
Once the limits of rangelands and fisheries are reached, then the
growing demand for animal protein can be satisfied by feeding cattle
in feedlots or fish in ponds; by expanding the production of pork,
poultry, and eggs, all largely dependent on feed concentrates; or
by producing more milk.
In this new situation, the varying efficiency with which grain is
converted into proteinbeef,
pork, poultry, and fishis
shaping production trends. Cattle in feedlots require roughly 7
kilograms of feed concentrate per additional kilogram of live weight.
For pigs, the ratio is nearly 4 to 1. Chickens are much more efficient,
with a 2-to-1 ratio. Fish, including both herbivorous and omnivorous
species, require less than 2 kilograms of grain concentrate per
kilogram of gain.40
There are three ways to increase animal protein supply without consuming
more grain: improve the efficiency of grain conversion into animal
protein; shift from the less efficient forms of conversion, such
as beef or pork, to the more efficient ones, such as poultry or
farmed fish; and rely on ruminants to convert more roughage into
either meat or milk.
Not surprisingly, the economics of the varying conversion rates
is accelerating growth in output among the more efficient converters.
The world's existing feedlots are being maintained, but there is
little new investment in feedlots simply because of the higher cost
of fed beef. From 1990 to 2000, world beef production increased
only 0.5 percent a year compared with 2.5 percent for pork. The
most rapidly growing source of meat during this period was poultry,
expanding at 4.9 percent annually. (See Table 7-3.)41
The oceanic fish catch has not increased appreciably since 1990,
thus falling far behind the soaring growth in demand for seafood.
In response, aquacultural output expanded from 13 million tons of
fish in 1990 to 31 million tons in 1998, growing by more than 11
percent a year. Even if aquacultural growth slows somewhat during
the current decade, world aquacultural output is still on track
to overtake the production of beef by 2010.42
China is the leading aquacultural producer, accounting for 21 million
tons of the global output in 1998. Its output is rather evenly divided
between coastal and inland areas. Coastal output is dominated by
shellfishmostly
oysters, clams, and mussels. It also includes small amounts of shrimp
or prawns and some finfish. Coastal aquaculture is often environmentally
damaging because it depends on converting wetlands into fish farms
or because it concentrates waste, leading to damaging algal blooms.43
Except for shellfish, most of China's aquacultural output is produced
inland in ponds, lakes, reservoirs, and rice paddies. Some 5 million
hectares of land are devoted exclusively to fish farming, much of
it to carp polyculture. In addition, 1.7 million hectares of riceland
produce rice and fish together.44
Over time, China has evolved a fish polyculture using four types
of carp that feed at different levels of the food chain, in effect
emulating natural aquatic ecosystems. Silver carp and bighead carp
are filter feeders, eating phytoplankton and zooplankton respectively.
The grass carp, as its name implies, feeds largely on vegetation,
while the common carp is a bottom feeder, living on detritus that
settles to the bottom. Most of China's aquaculture is integrated
with agriculture, enabling farmers to use agricultural wastes, such
as pig manure, to fertilize ponds, thus stimulating the growth of
plankton. Fish polyculture, which typically boosts pond productivity
over that of monocultures by at least half, also dominates fish
farming in India.45
As land and water become ever more scarce, China's fish farmers
are feeding more grain concentrates in order to raise pond productivity.
Between 1990 and 1996, China's farmers raised the annual pond yield
per hectare from 2.4 tons of fish to 4.1 tons.46
In the United States, catfish, which require less than 2 kilograms
of feed per kilogram of live weight, are the leading aquacultural
product. U.S. catfish production of 270,000 tons (600 million pounds)
is concentrated in four states: Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama,
and Arkansas. Mississippi, with some 45,000 hectares (174 square
miles) of catfish ponds and easily 60 percent of U.S. output, is
the catfish capital of the world.47
Public attention has focused on aquacultural operations that are
environmentally disruptive, such as the farming of salmon, a carnivorous
species, and shrimp. Yet these operations account for only 1.5 million
tons of output. World aquaculture is dominated by herbivorous species,
importantly carp in China and India, but also catfish in the United
States and tilapia in several countries.48
Just as aquaculture is supplementing the fish catch, new practices
are evolving to efficiently expand livestock output. Although rangelands
are being grazed to capacity and beyond, there is a large unrealized
potential for feeding agricultural residuesrice
straw, wheat straw, and corn stalksto
ruminants, such as cattle, sheep, and goats. This can mean that
a given grain crop yields a second harvestthe
meat or the milk that is produced with the straw and corn stalks.
Ruminants have a highly sophisticated digestive system, one that
can convert straw and corn stalks into meat and milk without using
the grain that can be consumed by humans. At present, most human
food comes from the photosynthate going into the seed of cereals,
but by feeding animals straw and corn stalks, the photosynthate
that goes into stems and leaves also can be converted into food.49
In India, both water buffalo, which are particularly good at converting
coarse roughage into milk, and cattle figure prominently in the
dairy industry. India has been uniquely successful in converting
crop residues into milk, expanding production from 20 million tons
in 1961 to 79 million tons in 2000-a
near fourfold increase. Following a path of steady growth, milk
became India's leading farm product in value in 1994. In 1997, India
overtook the United States to become the world's leading milk producer.
(See Figure 7-4.) Remarkably, it did so almost entirely by using
farm byproducts and crop residues, avoiding the diversion of grain
from human consumption to cattle.50
Between 1961 and 2000, India's milk production per person increased
from 0.9 liters per week to 1.5 liters, or roughly a cup of milk
per day. Although this is not a lot by western standards, it is
a welcome expansion in a protein-hungry country.51
The dairy industry structure in India is unique in that the milk
is produced almost entirely by small farmers, who have only one
to three cows. Milk production is integrated with agriculture, involving
an estimated 70 million farmers for whom it is a highly valued source
of supplemental income. Dairying, even on a small scale, is a labor-intensive
process, including gathering the roughage where cows are stall-fed,
milking them, and transporting the milk to market. Ownership of
a few cows or buffalo also means a supply of manure for cooking
fuel and for fertilizer. If India can introduce new energy sources
for cooking, it will free up more cow manure for fertilizer.52
China also has a large potential to feed corn stalks and wheat and
rice straw to cattle or sheep. As the world's leading producer of
both rice and wheat and the second ranked producer of corn, China
annually harvests an estimated 500 million tons of straw, corn stalks,
and other crop residues. At present, much of this either is burned,
simply to dispose of it, or is used in villages as fuel. Fortunately,
China has vast wind resources that can be harnessed to produce electricity
for cooking, thus freeing up roughage for feeding additional cattle
or sheep.53
The ammoniation of crop residues (that is, the incorporation of
nitrogen) in the roughage helps the microbial flora in the rumen
of the cattle and sheep to digest the roughage more completely.
The use of this technology in the major crop-producing provinces
of east central ChinaHebei,
Shandong, Henan, and Anhuihas
created a "Beef Belt." Beef output in these four provinces now dwarfs
that of the grazing provinces of Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang.54
Ruminants also produce soil-enriching manure that not only returns
nutrients to the soil, but also adds organic matter, which improves
both soil aeration and water retention capacity, thus enhancing
soil productivity. Roughage-based livestock systems are almost necessarily
local in nature because roughage is too bulky to transport long
distances.
Satisfying the demand for protein in a protein-hungry world where
water scarcity is likely to translate into grain scarcity is a challenge
to agricultural policymakers everywhere. If grain becomes scarce,
as now seems likely, other countries, such as the United States,
Canada, and France, may follow India's example of using ruminants
to systematically convert more crop residues into food.
Table 7-3. World Growth in Animal Protein
Production, by Source, 1990-2000 |
Source |
Annual
Rate of Growth
|
|
(percent)
|
Aquaculture1 |
11.4
|
Poultry |
4.9
|
Pork |
2.5
|
Beef |
0.5
|
Oceanic fish catch1 |
0.1
|
|
11990-98
only.
Source: See endnote 41. |
ENDNOTES:
39. Figure 7-3 from FAO, FAOSTAT, op. cit. note 14.
40. Conversion ratio for grain to beef based on Baker, op. cit.
note 15; pork conversion data from Leland Southard, Livestock and
Poultry Situation and Outlook Staff, ERS, USDA, Washington, DC,
discussion with author, 27 April 1992; feed-to-poultry conversion
ratio derived from data in Robert V. Bishop et al., The World Poultry
Market-Government Intervention and Multilateral Policy Reform (Washington,
DC: USDA, 1990); conversion ratio for fish from USDA, op. cit. note
16.
41. FAO, Yearbook of Fishery Statistics: Capture Production and
Aquaculture Production (Rome: various years); FAO, FAOSTAT, op.
cit. note 14.
42. Oceanic fish catch growth rate from FAO, op. cit. note 16; for
aquacultural output data, see FAO, Yearbook of Fishery Statistics:
Aquaculture Production 1998, vol. 86/2 (Rome: 2000).
43. FAO, op. cit. note 42.
44. K.J. Rana, "China," in Review of the State of World Aquaculture,
FAO Fisheries Circular No. 886 (Rome: 1997), www.fao.org/fi/publ/circular/c886.1/c886-1.asp;
information on rice and fish polyculture from Li Kangmin, "Rice
Aquaculture Systems in China: A Case of Rice-Fish Farming from Protein
Crops to Cash Crops," Proceedings of the Internet Conference on
Integrated Biosystems 1998 www.ias.unu.edu/proceedings/icibs/li/paper.htm,
viewed 5 July 2000.
45. Information on China's carp polyculture from Rosamond L. Naylor
et al., "Effect of Aquaculture on World Fish Supplies," Nature,
29 June 2000, p. 1022; polyculture in India from W.C. Nandeesha
et al., "Breeding of Carp with Oviprim," in Indian Branch, Asian
Fisheries Society, India, Special Publication No. 4 (Mangalore,
India: 1990), p. 1.
46. Krishen Rana, "Changing Scenarios in Aquaculture Development
in China," FAO Aquaculture Newsletter, August 1999, p. 18.
47. Catfish feed requirements from Naylor et al., op. cit. note
45, p. 1019; U.S. catfish production data from USDA, ERS-NASS, Catfish
Production (Washington, DC: July 2000), p. 3.
48. FAO, op. cit. note 42.
49. For information on the role of ruminants in agriculture, see
Council for Agricultural Science and Technology, "Animal Production
Systems and Resource Use," Animal Agriculture and Global Food Supply
(Ames, IA: July 1999), pp. 25-54, and H.A. Fitzhugh et al., The
Role of Ruminants in Support of Man (Morrilton, AR: Winrock International
Livestock Research and Training Center, April 1978), p. 5.
50. Roughage conversion from A. Banerjee, "Dairying Systems in India,"
World Animal Review, vol. 79/2 (Rome: FAO, 1994), and from S.C.
Dhall and Meena Dhall, "Dairy Industry-India's Strength Is in Its
Livestock," Business Line, Internet Edition of Financial Daily from
The Hindu group of publications, www.indiaserver.com/businessline/1997/11/07/stories/03070311.htm,
7 November 1997; Figure 7-4 from FAO, Food Outlook, no. 5, November
2000; FAO, FAOSTAT, op. cit. note 14.
51. Calculation based on data from FAO, op. cit. note 50.
52. Banerjee, op. cit. note 50.
53. China's crop residue production and use from Gao Tengyun, "Treatment
and Utilization of Crop Straw and Stover in China," Livestock Research
for Rural Development, February 2000.
54. Ibid.; China's "Beef Belt" from USDA, ERS, "China's Beef Economy:
Production, Marketing, Consumption, and Foreign Trade," International
Agriculture and Trade Reports: China (Washington, DC: July 1998),
p. 28.
Copyright
© 2001 Earth Policy Institute
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