A STATUS REPORT
Chapter 7. Feeding Everyone Well
Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy: Building an Economy for the Earth
(W.W. Norton & Co., NY: 2001).
As noted, 1.1 billion people are undernourished
and underweight. The meshing of this number with a World Bank estimate
of 1.3 billion living in poverty, defined as those living on $1
a day or less, comes as no surprise. Poverty and hunger go hand
in hand.5
Gains in eradicating hunger in East Asia and Latin America leave
most of those who are still hungry concentrated in the Indian subcontinent
and sub-Saharan Africa. In these regions, most of the hungry live
in the countryside. The World Bank reports that 72 percent of the
world's 1.3 billion poor live in rural areas. Most of them are undernourished,
sentenced to a short life. These rural poor usually live not on
the productive irrigated plains but on the semiarid/arid fringes
of agriculture or in the upper reaches of watersheds on highly erodible,
steeply sloped land. Eradicating hunger depends on stabilizing these
fragile ecosystems.6
Demographically, most of the world's poor live in countries with
rapidly growing populations, where poverty and population growth
are reinforcing each other. The Indian subcontinent, for example,
is adding 21 million people a year, the equivalent of another Australia.
By mid-century, the population of this regionalready
the hungriest on earthis
expected to include another 900 million people.7
No single factor bears so directly on the prospect of eradicating
hunger in this region as population growth. In rural societies,
when a farm passes from one generation to the next, it is typically
subdivided among the children. With the second generation of rapid
population growth and subsequent land fragmentation, farms are shrinking
to the point where they can no longer support the people living
on them.
Between 1970 and 1990, the number of farms in India with less than
2 hectares (5 acres) of land increased from 49 million to 82 million.
Assuming that this trend has continued since then, India now has
more than 90 million farms of less than 2 hectares. If each family
has six members, then 540 million peopleover
half of India's populationare
trapped in a precarious balance with the land.8
In Bangladesh, average farm size has already fallen below 1 hectare.
According to one study, Bangladesh's "strong tradition of bequeathing
land in fixed proportions to all male and female heirs has led to
increasing landlessness and extreme fragmentation of agricultural
holdings." In addition to the millions who are now landless, millions
more have plots so small that they are effectively landless.9
Africa, with the world's fastest population growth, is facing a
similar reduction in cropland per person. For example, as Nigeria's
population goes from 114 million today to a projected 278 million
in 2050, its per capita grainlandmost
of it semiarid and unirrigatedwill
shrink from 0.15 hectares to 0.06 hectares. Nigeria's food prospect,
if it stays on this population trajectory, is not promising.10
Further complicating efforts to expand food production are water
shortages. As noted earlier, almost all of the 3.2 billion people
to be added to world population in the next 50 years will be born
in countries already facing water shortages, such as India, Pakistan,
and those in the Middle East and semiarid Africa. In India, water
tables are already falling in large areas as demand exceeds the
sustainable yield of aquifers. For many countries facing water scarcity,
trying to eradicate hunger while population continues to grow rapidly
is like trying to walk up a down escalator.11
Even as the world faces the prospect of adding 80 million people
a year over the next two decades, expanding food production is becoming
more difficult. In each of the three food systemscroplands,
rangelands, and oceanic fisheriesoutput
expanded dramatically during most of the twentieth century's last
half. Now this is changing.
Between 1950 and 2000, as noted earlier, world production of grain
nearly tripled. Production per person climbed nearly 40 percent
as growth in the grain harvest outstripped that of population. The
rising tide of grain production improved nutrition for much of humanity,
but after 1984 growth in production slowed, falling behind that
of population. By 2000, production per person had dropped 11 percent
from the peak. (See Table 7-1.) The decline is concentrated in Africa,
where rapid population growth has simply outrun grain production,
and in the former Soviet Union, where the economy has shrunk by
half since 1990 and living standards have deteriorated.12
Roughly 1.2 billion tons of the world grain harvest are consumed
directly as food, with most of the remaining 635 million tons (36
percent) consumed indirectly in livestock, poultry, and aquacultural
products. The share of total grain used for feed varies widely among
the "big three" food producersranging
from a low of 4 percent in India to 25 percent in China and 65 percent
in the United States.13
Over the last half-century, the soaring world demand for animal
protein was satisfied largely by expanding the output of meat from
rangelands and of seafood from oceanic fisheries. World production
of beef and mutton increased from 24 million tons in 1950 to 65
million tons in 2000, a near tripling. Most of the growth, however,
occurred from 1950 to 1972, when output went up 44 percent. Since
1972, beef and mutton production per person has fallen by 15 percent.14
An estimated four fifths of the beef and mutton produced worldwide
in 2000, roughly 52 million tons, comes from animals that forage
on rangelands. With the world's rangelands now being grazed at or
beyond capacity, future gains in output will likely be limited.15
The growth in the oceanic fish catch exceeded even that of beef
and mutton, climbing from 19 million tons in 1950 to 86 million
tons in 1998, the last year for which data are available. This fourfold
growth was also concentrated in 1950-88, a time during which the
annual growth in the catchat
3.8 percentwas
easily double that of world population. As a result, the oceanic
fish catch per person climbed from 8 kilograms in 1950 to 17 kilograms
in 1988. Since then, it has fallen by some 17 percent. The new reality
is that fishers and ranchers can no longer satisfy much of the growing
demand for food. For the first time since civilization began, farmers
must try to meet future food needs on their own.16
Table 7-1. World Production Per Person
of Grain, Beef and Mutton, and Seafood, 1950-2000 |
Food |
Growth
Period
|
Growth
|
Decline
Period
|
Decline
|
|
|
(percent)
|
|
(percent)
|
Grain |
1950-84
|
+ 38
|
1984-2000
|
-11
|
Beef and Mutton |
1950-72
|
+ 44
|
1972-2000
|
-15
|
Seafood |
1950-88
|
+112
|
1988-98
|
-17
|
|
Source: See endnote 12. |
ENDNOTES:
5. UN ACC/SCN, op. cit. note 4; 1.3 billion in poverty from World
Bank, Rural Development: From Vision to Action, Environmentally
and Socially Sustainable Development Studies and Monographs Series
No. 12 (Washington, DC: 1997), p. 1.
6. World Bank, op. cit. note 5, p. 1.
7. United Nations, op. cit. note 2.
8. R.K. Pachauri and P.V. Sridharan, eds., Looking Back to Think
Ahead (abridged version), GREEN India 2047 Project (New Delhi: Tata
Energy Research Institute, 1998), p. 7.
9. Michael Morris, Nuimuddin Chowdhury, and Craig Meisner, Wheat
Production in Bangladesh: Technological, Economic, and Policy Issues
(Washington, DC: IFPRI, 1997), p. 10.
10. Population data from United Nations, op. cit. note 2; grain
harvested area from USDA, op. cit. note 1.
11. Population data from United Nations, op. cit. note 2; Sandra
Postel, Pillar of Sand (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1999),
pp. 73-74.
12. Table 7-1 from USDA, op. cit. note 1; population data from United
Nations, op. cit. note 2; economic information available from International
Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2000/02/data/index.htm,
September 2000.
13. USDA, op. cit. note 1.
14. FAO, 1948-1985 World Crop and Livestock Statistics (Rome: 1987);
FAO, FAOSTAT Statistics Database, apps.fao.org, updated 2 May 2001.
15. Conversion ratio for grain to beef based on Allen Baker, Feed
Situation and Outlook staff, Economic Research Service (ERS), USDA,
Washington, DC, discussion with author, 27 April 1992.
16. Fish catch data for 1989 to 1998 from FAO, Yearbook of Fishery
Statistics: Capture Production (Rome: various years); grain equivalent
of farmed fish from USDA, ERS, "China's Aquatic Products Economy:
Production, Marketing, Consumption, and Foreign Trade," International
Agriculture and Trade Reports: China (Washington, DC: July 1998),
p. 45.
Copyright
© 2001 Earth Policy Institute
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