NEW INDUSTRIES, NEW JOBS
Chapter 4. The Shape of the Eco-Economy
Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy: Building an Economy for the Earth
(W.W. Norton & Co., NY: 2001).
Describing the eco-economy is obviously
a somewhat speculative undertaking. In the end, however, it is not
as open-ended as it might seem because the eco-economy's broad outlines
are defined by the principles of ecology.
The purpose of describing the restructuring of the overall economy
before turning to chapters on the key sectors is to give a sense
of the dynamics at work. The specific trends and shifts described
are not projections of what will happen, though the term "will"
is often used here for the sake of efficiency. No one knows if these
shifts "will" in fact occur, but we do know that something like
this is needed if we are to build an eco-economy.
What is not so clear is how ecological principles will translate
into economic design since, for example, each country has a unique
combination of renewable energy sources that will power its economy.
Some countries may draw broadly on all their renewable energy sources,
while others may concentrate heavily on one that is particularly
abundant, say wind or solar energy. A country with a wealth of geothermal
energy may choose to structure its energy economy around this subterranean
energy source.
Building a new economy involves phasing out old industries, restructuring
existing ones, and creating new ones. World coal use is already
being phased out, dropping 7 percent since peaking in 1996. It is
being replaced by efficiency gains in some countries; by natural
gas in others, such as the United Kingdom and China; and by wind
power in others such as Denmark.12
The automobile industry faces a major restructuring as it changes
power sources, shifting from the gasoline-powered internal combustion
engine to the hydrogen-powered fuel cell engine. This shift from
the explosive energy that derives from igniting gasoline vapor to
a chemical reaction that generates electricity will require both
a retooling of engine plants and the retraining of automotive engineers
and automobile mechanics.
The new economy will also bring major new industries, ones that
either do not yet exist or that are just beginning. Wind electricity
generation is one such industry. (See Table 4-1.) Now in its embryonic
stage, it promises to become the foundation of the new energy economy.
Millions of turbines soon will be converting wind into electricity,
becoming part of the global landscape. In many countries, wind will
supply both electricity and, through the electrolysis of water,
hydrogen. Together, electricity and hydrogen can meet all the energy
needs of a modern society.
In effect, there will be three new subsidiary industries associated
with wind power: turbine manufacturing, installation, and maintenance.
Manufacturing facilities will be found in scores of countries, industrial
and developing. Installation, which is basically a construction
industry, will be more local in nature. Maintenance, since it is
a day-to-day activity, will be a source of ongoing local employment.
The robustness of the wind turbine industry was evident in 2000
and 2001 when high tech stocks were in a free fall worldwide. While
high tech firms as a group were performing poorly, sales of wind
turbines were climbing, pushing the earnings of turbine manufacturers
to the top of the charts. Continuing growth of this sector is expected
for the next few decades.
As wind power emerges as a low-cost source of electricity and a
mainstream energy source, it will spawn another industryhydrogen
production. Once wind turbines are in wide use, there will be a
large, unused capacity during the night when electricity use drops.
With this essentially free electricity, turbine owners can turn
on the hydrogen generators, converting the wind power into hydrogen,
ideal for fuel cell engines. Hydrogen generators will start to replace
oil refineries. The wind turbine will replace both the coal mine
and the oil well. (See Table 4-2.) Both wind turbines and hydrogen
generators will be widely dispersed as countries take advantage
of local wind resources.
Changes in the world food economy will also be substantial. (See
Chapter 7.) Some of these, such as the shift to fish farming, are
already under way. The fastest growing subsector of the world food
economy during the 1990s was aquaculture, expanding at more than
11 percent a year. Fish farming is likely to continue to expand
simply because of its efficiency in converting grain into animal
protein.13
Even allowing for slower future growth in aquaculture, fish farm
output will likely overtake beef production during this decade.
Perhaps more surprising, fish farming could eventually exceed the
oceanic fish catch. Indeed, for China--the world's leading consumer
of seafood--fish farming already supplies two thirds of the seafood
while the oceanic catch accounts for the other third.14
With this development comes the need for a mixed-feed industry,
one analogous to that which provides the nutritionally balanced
rations used by the poultry industry today. There will also be a
need for aquatic ecologists, fish nutritionists, and marine veterinarians.
Another growth industry of the future is bicycle manufacturing and
servicing. Because the bicycle is nonpolluting, frugal in its use
of land, and provides the exercise much needed in sedentary societies,
future reliance on it is expected to grow. As recently as 1965,
the production of cars and bikes was essentially the same, but today
more than twice as many bikes as cars are manufactured each year.
Among industrial countries, the urban transport model being pioneered
in the Netherlands and Denmark, where bikes are featured prominently,
gives a sense of the bicycle's future role worldwide.15
As bicycle use expands, interest in electrically assisted bikes
is also growing. Similar to existing bicycles, except for a tiny
battery-powered electric motor that can either power the bicycle
entirely or assist elderly riders or those living in hilly terrain,
its soaring sales are expected to continue climbing in the years
ahead.
Yet another growth industry is raising water productivity. Just
as the last half-century has been devoted to raising land productivity,
the next half-century will be focused on raising water productivity.
Virtually all societies will be turning to the management of water
at the watershed level in order to manage available supply most
efficiently. Irrigation technologies will become more efficient.
Urban waste water recycling will become common. At present, water
tends to flow into and out of cities, carrying waste with it. In
the future, water will be used over and over, never discharged.
Since water does not wear out, there is no limit to how long it
can be used, as long as it is purified before reuse.
Another industry that will play a prominent role in the new economy,
one that will reduce energy use, is teleconferencing. Increasingly
for environmental reasons and to save time, individuals will be
"attending" conferences electronically with both audio and visual
connections. This industry involves developing the electronic global
infrastructure, as well as the services, to make this possible.
One day there will likely be literally thousands of firms organizing
electronic conferences.
Restructuring the global economy will create not only new industries,
but also new jobs-indeed, whole new professions and new specialties
within professions. (See Table 4-3.) For example, as wind becomes
an increasingly prominent energy source, there will be a need for
thousands of wind meteorologists to analyze potential wind sites,
monitor wind speeds, and select the best sites for wind farms. The
better the data on wind resources, the more efficient the industry
will become.
Closely related to this new profession will be the wind engineers
who design the wind turbines. Again, the appropriate turbine size
and design can vary widely according to site. It will be the job
of wind engineers to tailor designs to specific wind regimes in
order to maximize electricity generation.
Environmental architecture is another fast-growing profession. Among
the signposts of an environmentally sustainable economy are buildings
that are in harmony with the environment. Environmental architects
design buildings that are energy- and materials-efficient and that
maximize natural heating, cooling, and lighting.
In a future of water scarcity, watershed hydrologists will be in
demand. It will be their responsibility to understand the hydrological
cycle, including the movement of underground water, and to know
the depth of aquifers and determine their sustainable yield. They
will be at the center of watershed management regimes.
As the world shifts from a throwaway economy, engineers will be
needed to design products that can be recycledfrom
cars to computers. Once products are designed to be disassembled
quickly and easily into component parts and materials, comprehensive
recycling is relatively easy.
Technologies used in recycling are sometimes quite different from
those used in producing from virgin raw materials. Within the U.S.
steel industry, for example, where nearly 60 percent of all steel
is produced from scrap, the technologies used differ depending on
the feedstock. Steel manufactured in electric arc furnaces from
scrap uses far less energy than traditional open-hearth furnaces
using pig iron. It will be the responsibility of the recycling engineers
to close the materials loop, converting the linear flow-through
economy into a comprehensive recycling economy.16
In countries with a wealth of geothermal energy, it will be up to
geothermal geologists to locate the best sites either for power
plants or for tapping directly to heat buildings. Retraining petroleum
geologists to master geothermal technologies is one way of satisfying
the likely surge in demand for geothermal geologists.
If the world is to stabilize population sooner rather than later,
it will need far more family planning midwives in Third World communities.
This growth sector will be concentrated largely in developing countries,
where millions of women lack access to family planning. The same
family planning counselors who advise on reproductive health and
contraceptive use can also play a central role in controlling the
spread of HIV.
Another pressing need, particularly in developing countries, is
for sanitary engineers who can design sewage systems not dependent
on water, a trend that is already under way in some water-scarce
countries. As it becomes clear that using water to wash waste away
is a reckless use of a scarce resource, a new breed of sanitary
engineers will be in wide demand. Washing waste away is even less
acceptable today as marine ecosystems are overwhelmed by nutrient
flows. Apart from the ecological disruption of a water-based disposal
method, there are also much higher priorities in the use of water,
such as drinking, bathing, and irrigation.
Yet another new specialty that is likely to expand rapidly in agriculture
as productive farmland becomes scarce is agronomists who specialize
in multiple cropping and intercropping. This requires an expertise
both in the selection of crops that can fit together well in a tight
rotation in various locales and in agricultural practices that facilitate
multiple cropping.
Table 4-2. Examples of Eco-Economy Sunset
Industries |
Industry |
Description |
Coal mining |
The 7 percent decline in world coal
burning since it peaked in 1996 will accelerate in the
years ahead. |
Oil pumping |
Projections based on shrinking oil
reserves indicate production will peak and start declining
in the next 5-20 years. But concerns about global warming
could bring the decline closer. |
Nuclear power generation |
Although public concern focuses on
safety issues, it is the high cost that is ensuring the
industry's decline. |
Clearcut logging |
The rapid spread in eco-labeling of
forest products will likely force logging firms to change
to sustainable harvesting or be driven out of business. |
Manufacture of throwaway products |
As efforts to close the materials cycle
intensify, throwaway products will be either banned or
taxed out of existence. |
Automobile manufacturing |
As world population urbanizes, the
conflict between the automobile and the city will intensify,
reducing dependence on automobiles. |
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Table 4-3. Expanding Professions in an
Eco-Economy |
Profession |
Description |
Wind meteorologists |
Wind meteorologists will play a role
in the new energy economy comparable to that of petroleum
geologists in the old one. |
Family planning midwives |
If world population is to stabilize
soon, literally millions of family planning midwives will
be needed. |
Foresters |
Reforesting the earth will require
professional guidance on what species to plant where and
in what combination. |
Hydrologists |
As water scarcity spreads, the demand
for hydrologists to advise on watershed management, water
sources, and water efficiency will increase. |
Recycling engineers |
Designing consumer appliances so they
can be easily disassembled and completely recycled will
become an engineering specialty. |
Aquacultural veterinarians |
Until now, veterinarians have typically
specialized in either large animals or small animals,
but with fish farming likely to overtake beef production
before the end of this decade, marine veterinarians will
be in demand. |
Ecological economists |
As it becomes clear that the basic
principles of ecology must be incorporated into economic
planning and policymaking, the demand for economists able
to think like ecologists will grow. |
Geothermal geologists |
With the likelihood that large areas
of the world will turn to geothermal energy both for electricity
and for heating, the demands for geothermal geologists
will climb. |
Environmental architects |
Architects are learning the principles
of ecology so they can incorporate them into the buildings
in which we live and work. |
Bicycle mechanics |
As the world turns to the bicycle for
transportation and exercise, bicycle mechanics will be
needed to keep the fleet running. |
Wind turbine engineers |
With millions of wind turbines likely
to be installed in the decades ahead, there will be strong
worldwide demand for wind turbine engineers. |
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Table 4-1. Examples of Eco-Economy Industries |
Industry |
Description |
Fish farming |
Although growth will slow from the
double-digit rate of the last decade, rapid expansion
is likely to continue. |
Bicycle manufacturing |
Because bicycles are nonpolluting,
quiet, require little parking space, and provide much-needed
exercise in exercise-deprived societies, they will become
increasingly common. |
Wind farm construction |
Wind electric generation, including
off-shore wind farms, will grow rapidly over the next
few decades, until wind is supplying most of the world's
electricity. |
Wind turbine manufacturing |
Today the number of utility-scale wind
turbines is measured in the thousands, but soon it will
be measured in the millions, creating an enormous manufacturing
opportunity. |
Hydrogen generation |
As the transition from a carbon-based
to a hydrogen-based energy economy progresses, hydrogen
generation will become a huge industry as hydrogen replaces
coal and oil. |
Fuel cell manufacturing |
As fuel cells replace internal combustion
engines in automobiles and begin generating power in buildings,
a huge market will evolve. |
Solar carll manufacturing |
For many of the 2 billion people living
in rural Third World communities who lack electricity,
solar cells will be the best bet for electrification. |
Light rail construction |
As people tire of the traffic congestion
and pollution associated with the automobile, cities in
industrial and developing countries alike will be turning
to light rail to provide mobility. |
Tree planting |
As efforts to reforest the earth gain
momentum and as tree plantations expand, tree planting
will emerge as a leading economic activity. |
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ENDNOTES:
12.
Coal consumption from BP, BP Statistical Review of World Energy
(London: Group Media & Publications, June 2001), p. 33.
13. Anne Platt McGinn, "Aquaculture Growing Rapidly," in Lester
R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 1998 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company,
1998), pp. 36-37.
14. FAO, Yearbook of Fisheries Statistics: Capture Production and
Aquaculture Production (Rome: various years); K.J. Rana, "FAO Fisheries
Department Review of the State of World Aquaculture: China," www.fao.org/fi/publ/circular/c886.1/china3.asp;
beef production from FAO, op. cit. note 2.
15. Michael Renner, "Vehicle Production Sets New Record," and Gary
Gardner, "Bicycle Production Recovers," both in Worldwatch Institute,
op. cit. note 5, pp. 68-71.
16. Figure of 60 percent based on consumption and production figures
from Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, Washington, DC, and
on Bill Heenan of Steel Recycling Institute, Pittsburgh, PA; electric
arc furnace in Gary Gardner, "Steel Recycling Rising," in Lester
R. Brown et al., Vital Signs 1995 (New York: W.W. Norton & Company,
1995), p. 128.
Copyright
© 2001 Earth Policy Institute
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