THE ACCELERATION OF HISTORY
Chapter 1. The Economy and the Earth
Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy: Building an Economy for the Earth
(W.W. Norton & Co., NY: 2001).
The pace of change is reaching an extraordinary
rate, driven in part by technological innovation. Bill Joy, cofounder
and chief scientist of Sun Microsystems, warned in an early 2000
article in Wired magazine that rapid advances in robotics, genomics,
and nanotechnology could yield potentially unmanageable problems.
He is particularly concerned that our growing dependence on ever
more intelligent computers could one day enable them to dominate
us.51
Rapidly advancing technology is accelerating history, making it
difficult for social institutions to manage it effectively. This
is also true for unprecedented world population growth, even faster
economic growth, and the increasingly frequent collisions between
the expanding economy and the limits of the earth's natural systems.
The current rate of change has no precedent.
Until recently, population growth was so slow that it aroused little
concern. But since 1950 we have added more people to world population
than during the preceding 4 million years since our early ancestors
first stood upright. Economic expansion in earlier times was similarly
slow. To illustrate, growth in the world economy during the year
2000 exceeded that during the entire nineteenth century.52
Throughout most of human history, the growth of population, the
rise in income, and the development of new technologies were so
slow as to be imperceptible during an individual life span. For
example, the climb in grainland productivity from 1.1 tons per hectare
in 1950 to 2.8 tons per hectare in 2000 exceeds that during the
11,000 years from the beginning of agriculture until 1950.53
The population growth of today has no precedent. Throughout most
of our existence as a species, our numbers were measured in the
thousands. Today, they measure in the billions. Our evolution has
prepared us to deal with many threats, but perhaps not with the
threat we pose to ourselves with the uncontrolled growth in our
own numbers.
The world economy is growing even faster. The sevenfold growth in
global output of goods and services since 1950 dwarfs anything in
history. In the earlier stages of the Industrial Revolution, economic
expansion rarely exceeded 1 or 2 percent a year. Developing countries
that are industrializing now are doing so much faster than their
predecessors simply because they do not have to invent the technologies
needed by a modern industrial society, such as power plants, automobiles,
and refrigerators. They can simply draw on the experiences and technology
of those that preceded them.54
More sophisticated financial institutions enable societies to mobilize
the capital needed for investment today more easily than in the
past. As a result, the countries that were successfully industrializing
in the late twentieth century did so at a record rate. Economic
growth in the developing countries of East Asia, for instance, has
averaged almost 7 percent annually since 1990far
higher than growth rates in industrial countries at any time in
their history.55
In another example of rapid change, since 1974 some 28 new infectious
diseases have been identifiedranging
from HIV, which has claimed 22 million lives, to new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob
disease, the human form of bovine spongiform encephalopathy ("mad
cow disease"), with nearly 100 known cases. Some disease agents
are new; others that were located in remote regions are simply being
linked to the rest of the world by modern transport systems.56
The pace of history is also accelerating as soaring human demands
collide with the earth's natural limits. National political leaders
are spending more time dealing with the consequences of the collisions
described earliercollapsing
fisheries, falling water tables, food shortages, and increasingly
destructive stormsalong
with a steadily swelling international flow of environmental refugees
and the many other effects of overshooting natural limits. As change
has accelerated, the situation has evolved from one where individuals
and societies change only rarely to one where they change continuously.
They are changing not only in response to growth itself, but also
to the consequences of growth.
The central question is whether the accelerating change that is
an integral part of the modern landscape is beginning to exceed
the capacity of our social institutions to cope with change. Change
is particularly difficult for institutions dealing with international
or global issues that require a concerted, cooperative effort by
many countries with contrasting cultures if they are to succeed.
For example, sustaining the existing oceanic fish catch may be possible
only if numerous agreements are reached among countries on the limits
to fishing in individual oceanic fisheries. And can governments,
working together at the global level, move fast enough to stabilize
climate before it disrupts economic progress?
The issue is not whether we know what needs to be done or whether
we have the technologies to do it. The issue is whether our social
institutions are capable of bringing about the change in the time
available. As H.G. Wells wrote in The Outline of History,
"Human history becomes more and more a race between education and
catastrophe."57
ENDNOTES:
51. Bill Joy, "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," Wired, April 2000.
52. United Nations, op. cit. note 25; IMF, op. cit. note 10.
53. USDA, op. cit. note 3.
54. IMF, op. cit. note 10.
55. Ibid.
56. Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Report on the Global
HIV/AIDS Epidemic (Geneva: June 2000), p. 6; The U.K. Creutzfeldt-Jakob
Disease Surveillance Unit, "CJD Statistics," ,
updated 7 July 2001; CJD Support Network, "Variant CJD," Information
Sheet 4, Alzheimer's Society, April 2001.
57. H.G. Wells, The Outline of History (London: The Macmillan Company,
1921).
Copyright
© 2001 Earth Policy Institute
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